A high CAPE ratio has been linked to the phrase " irrational exuberance " and to Shiller's book of the same name. Under no circumstances does any information posted on GuruFocus. Campbell and Robert Shiller concluded that "a long moving average of real earnings helps to forecast future real dividends" which in turn are correlated with returns on stocks. Bureau of Labor Statistics begins in ; for years before 1 spliced to the CPI Warren and Pearson's price index, by multiplying it by the ratio of the indexes in January
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