That process looks to have started last night with the cross pulling back from the 0.
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Speed same to 3 days. The domestic economy is robust enough. We are really surprised that the Fed has capitulated to market fear, whether in the form of inverting yield curves or the stock market rout, saying these market events are a risk to the economic fundamentals. Although there were no clear catalysts behind that jump, a large Bitcoin transaction recorded on The European Central Bank policy maker Ardo Hansson was recently speaking, being covered via Bloomberg, speaking very much negatively on cryptocurrencies.
He was as extreme as saying they will die. It was a tough start to but there's nothing new under the sun. A shortened week due to Year-End Holidays saw exacerbated reactions to the prevalent fears about a global economic downturn, and the few macroeconomic readings released these days only confirmed such speculation.
The path of least resistance is to the upside. Trading around the 0. An agreement should see the Euro improve and retest the high of 15 November at 0. As we suspected price action has travelled back under the physiological level of 0. Its early days yet but a break outside the long term bullish channel held since 8 October from 0. Certainly, if Italy can resolve their budget forecast differences with the EU we may see further EUR support through to Christmas develop.
The kiwi reached a high last week of 0. US equity markets took a hammering we suspect the fallout between the unsettling dialogue between Xi Jinping and Mike Pence. Analysts are suggesting the US are adopting a tougher tone in dealings with China. Certainly, Mike Pence behaved inappropriately given the magnitude of the situation with the ongoing trade tariff disputes.
If risk off sentiment continues we could see the kiwi break below 0. The pair has reached 1. In what has been an extraordinary turn of events literally from late September when the cross was trading at 0.
With Rome rejecting the EU demands to revise their 2. The Euro EUR consolidated around the 0. The first copy suggested a deficit of 2. Buyers of EUR will be happy with the massive reversal from the low of 0. Long term resistance of 0. With NZ employment numbers printing so well the kiwi has been the standout this week across the board.
The RBNZ kept rates unchanged as expected Adrian Orr reiterating that we would see no change to policy until well into with the bias slightly skewed to hawkish with projected growth forecasts. We suspect the NZD should run out of puff soonish so we expect a reversal in price towards 0. A retest of 0. The bullish channel from 0. Even with renewed optimism with Brexit headlines the Euro should be trading higher as it has against the big dollar.
Australian Trade Balance printed Thursday well above expectations saw the kiwi go along for the ride pushing to a two month high. We think a retest of 0. French and Italy are on holiday Thursday, we are not expecting price to vary far from current levels around 0.
Mario Draghi left the benchmark rate on hold as widely anticipated highlighting he would do away with the quantitative easing program at the end of The Euro slid to 0.
Earlier in the week German and French manufacturing published down on market expectations with German manufacturing growing at the slowest pace in over 3 years. The kiwi has confirmed the breakaway this week from the low of 0. The New Zealand dollar NZD has been putting in a solid recovery against the Euro EUR over the past week and there is definitely potential for this to extend further yet. This opens the way from a much broader recovery toward 0. Assuming that barrier is overcome, I would look for further gains over the coming week.
Midday Tuesday we have seen the NZD retrace lower back to 0. The 12 June bearish decline from 0. Investors are perceiving the Italian budget and debt levels to be far too risky as Italy try to resolve the problem of increasing growth without raising debt levels. Resistance around the 0. Softer German industrial production and Italian budget headlines have put the Euro on the back foot. August level around 0.
NZ based data this week has put further pressure on the kiwi with Business sentiment and Dairy prices worse than expected. The September 10 Low of 0. The RBNZ governor Orr said the next change in the cash rate could be up or down but said any shift would not come before more likely These comments alone can only increase the chances of a broader weaker NZD, we remain bearish on the NZD with the pair to possibly challenge support at 0.
Longer term we favour NZD downside. Patchy European data, concerns around Italian politics and a better GDP figure have pushed this cross higher over the last few days from 0.
Sellers of Euro should be extremely happy with more downside expected. We have been breaking through all kinds of support lately, this week has been no different. With the pair trading currently at 0. The ECB announced their benchmark cash rate overnight leaving it unchanged taking the pair off a short period of NZD strength back to 0. Its currently trading at 0. With current market conditions affecting risk currencies we see further weakness likely for the NZD with intl trade uncertainties still very much affecting the way markets behave.
Trading at these extreme levels makes for tough times gauging price action with a trend reversal likely at some point but perhaps not in the short term. Long range support is seen at 0. Exchange Rates Current level: That downward momentum drove the pair to a fresh cycle low of 0. At this stage there are no signals that the negative trend has run its course, and as such for the time being the risks remain skewed to further NZDEUR weakness.
That being said, the overall move is starting to look a little long in the tooth, and we are very alert to any potential signs that downside momentum may be fading. A move back above initial resistance around 0. Until we actually see some signs however, we have to respect the current trend. The pair currently trades at 0. The next key support level is some way off at 0. Breaking past the support line of 0.
From here we expect further declines in the kiwi but with a lack of any fundamental data to publish next week direction will be limited to risk factors.
German and French Manufacturing helped the EUR after figures reported a buoyant manufacturing sector with figures printing up on expectations. The cross continues to consider the idea of breaking support at 0. The only first tier data to publish this week is NZ Retail Sales which is expected to be in line with expectations of 0. Also to watch is a slew of Euro manufacturing figures out in Germany and France. NZ Producer Index figures release today and should show an increase of 0.
As we look over the chart its clear we are hovering just shy of the long term trend line of October Further NZD weakness particularly if German economic sentiment prints well could bring about a break lower. Prior to the RBNZ release where the cash rate was left unchanged at 1. The Cash rate is also expected to remain at 1. From here we see further declines in the kiwi to come, currently trading at 0.
The pair is still operating within its 3 week range of 0. With no Euro data to come out this week we should see further choppy movement continue. A bunch of data has published over the week starting with ANZ Business confidence and ending with NZ Unemployment data has taken the pair on a journey from 0. Actually, the EUR is trading slightly higher as I write this at 0. I think the pair is ready for a breakout through 0. With NZ consumer confidence falling in June we have seen deterioration in the kiwi as well of note.
Currency Exchange Quotes or Apply for an account. Manufacturing data earlier in the week was benign shifting the EUR slightly to the downside with worse than expected French data. Draghi delivered a confident assessment of the Eurozone expected recovery last night and left rates unchanged sticking to his plan laid out in June to phase out the asset purchasing program by the end of the year.
As we know he reiterated there would be no lifting of rates until June We expect the pair to stay within its band of 0.
A quiet week for kiwi data with only the Trade Balance to print markets will look to French and German Manufacturing figures for clarity on direction. Choppy since 28th of June the pair has been operating in a band of 0. The pair should hold at current levels to open next week but the NZD looks the weaker of the pair.
A push back to 0. Currently sitting around 0. Overall trend remains down for the NZD on this cross but direction remains dependent on equivalent USD strength and tariff moves on each of these cross pairs. Current range should hold over the next couple of days. Choppy week with a 0. Future direction will likely be driven my further news in the tariff row.
Exchange Rates The current interbank midrate is: After a low last week at 0. Look for trading to remain inside the 0. The cross has traded in a tight band over the last couple of days with US Independence Day making sure volume has been light. The kiwi Dollar NZD has continued its decline from the high of 0. The cross trades just below support of 0. German CPI was benign overnight printing at 0. European leaders are meeting in Brussels for a two day summit with some dark days ahead.
High on the agenda is the ongoing escalating trade war.