Retrieved 9 January That means that we must, step by step as things go forward, give up more powers to Europe as well and allow Europe oversight possibilities.
Thomas Piketty , French economist and author of the bestselling book Capital in the Twenty-First Century regards taxes on capital as a more favorable option than austerity inefficient and unjust and inflation only affects cash but neither real estates nor business capital. According to his analysis, a flat tax of 15 percent on private wealth would provide the state with nearly a year's worth national income, which would allow for immediate reimbursement of the entire public debt.
Instead of a one-time write-off, German economist Harald Spehl has called for a year debt-reduction plan, similar to the one Germany used after World War II to share the burden of reconstruction and development.
According to this agreement, West Germany had to make repayments only when it was running a trade surplus, that is "when it had earned the money to pay up, rather than having to borrow more, or dip into its foreign currency reserves. The European bailouts are largely about shifting exposure from banks and others, who otherwise are lined up for losses on the sovereign debt they have piled up, onto European taxpayers. First, the "no bail-out" clause Article TFEU ensures that the responsibility for repaying public debt remains national and prevents risk premiums caused by unsound fiscal policies from spilling over to partner countries.
The clause thus encourages prudent fiscal policies at the national level. The European Central Bank 's purchase of distressed country bonds can be viewed as violating the prohibition of monetary financing of budget deficits Article TFEU. Articles and were meant to create disincentives for EU member states to run excessive deficits and state debt, and prevent the moral hazard of over-spending and lending in good times.
They were also meant to protect the taxpayers of the other more prudent member states. By issuing bail-out aid guaranteed by prudent eurozone taxpayers to rule-breaking eurozone countries such as Greece, the EU and eurozone countries also encourage moral hazard in the future. The EU treaties contain so called convergence criteria , specified in the protocols of the Treaties of the European Union.
For eurozone members there is the Stability and Growth Pact , which contains the same requirements for budget deficit and debt limitation but with a much stricter regime. In the past, many European countries have substantially exceeded these criteria over a long period of time. According to a study by economists at St Gallen University credit rating agencies have fuelled rising euro zone indebtedness by issuing more severe downgrades since the sovereign debt crisis unfolded in The authors concluded that rating agencies were not consistent in their judgments, on average rating Portugal, Ireland, and Greece 2.
Germany, Finland and Luxembourg. European policy makers have criticised ratings agencies for acting politically, accusing the Big Three of bias towards European assets and fuelling speculation.
France too has shown its anger at its downgrade. Similar comments were made by high-ranking politicians in Germany. Michael Fuchs , deputy leader of the leading Christian Democrats , said: Why doesn't it act on the highly indebted United States or highly indebted Britain? Credit rating agencies were also accused of bullying politicians by systematically downgrading eurozone countries just before important European Council meetings.
As one EU source put it: It is strange that we have so many downgrades in the weeks of summits. In essence, this forced European banks and more importantly the European Central Bank , e. Due to the failures of the ratings agencies, European regulators obtained new powers to supervise ratings agencies.
Germany's foreign minister Guido Westerwelle called for an "independent" European ratings agency, which could avoid the conflicts of interest that he claimed US-based agencies faced.
On 30 January , the company said it was already collecting funds from financial institutions and business intelligence agencies to set up an independent non-profit ratings agency by mid, which could provide its first country ratings by the end of the year.
But attempts to regulate credit rating agencies more strictly in the wake of the eurozone crisis have been rather unsuccessful. Some in the Greek, Spanish, and French press and elsewhere spread conspiracy theories that claimed that the U. The Economist rebutted these "Anglo-Saxon conspiracy" claims, writing that although American and British traders overestimated the weakness of southern European public finances and the probability of the breakup of the eurozone breakup, these sentiments were an ordinary market panic, rather than some deliberate plot.
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is quoted as saying that there was no question of Greece leaving the euro and suggested that the crisis was politically as well as financially motivated.
Both the Spanish and Greek Prime Ministers have accused financial speculators and hedge funds of worsening the crisis by short selling euros. Goldman Sachs and other banks faced an inquiry by the Federal Reserve over their derivatives arrangements with Greece.
The Guardian reported that "Goldman was reportedly the most heavily involved of a dozen or so Wall Street banks" that assisted the Greek government in the early s "to structure complex derivatives deals early in the decade and 'borrow' billions of dollars in exchange rate swaps, which did not officially count as debt under eurozone rules. In response to accusations that speculators were worsening the problem, some markets banned naked short selling for a few months.
Some economists, mostly from outside Europe and associated with Modern Monetary Theory and other post-Keynesian schools, condemned the design of the euro currency system from the beginning because it ceded national monetary and economic sovereignty but lacked a central fiscal authority.
When faced with economic problems, they maintained, "Without such an institution, EMU would prevent effective action by individual countries and put nothing in its place. Ricci of the IMF, contend that the eurozone does not fulfil the necessary criteria for an optimum currency area , though it is moving in that direction.
As the debt crisis expanded beyond Greece, these economists continued to advocate, albeit more forcefully, the disbandment of the eurozone. If this was not immediately feasible, they recommended that Greece and the other debtor nations unilaterally leave the eurozone, default on their debts, regain their fiscal sovereignty, and re-adopt national currencies.
The likely substantial fall in the euro against a newly reconstituted Deutsche Mark would give a "huge boost" to its members' competitiveness. Iceland, not part of the EU, is regarded as one of Europe's recovery success stories.
Labour concessions, a minimal reliance on public debt, and tax reform helped to further a pro-growth policy. The Wall Street Journal added that without the German-led bloc, a residual euro would have the flexibility to keep interest rates low  and engage in quantitative easing or fiscal stimulus in support of a job-targeting economic policy  instead of inflation targeting in the current configuration.
There is opposition in this view. The national exits are expected to be an expensive proposition. The breakdown of the currency would lead to insolvency of several euro zone countries, a breakdown in intrazone payments.
Having instability and the public debt issue still not solved, the contagion effects and instability would spread into the system. According to Steven Erlanger from The New York Times, a "Greek departure is likely to be seen as the beginning of the end for the whole euro zone project, a major accomplishment, whatever its faults, in the post-War construction of a Europe "whole and at peace". The challenges to the speculation about the break-up or salvage of the eurozone is rooted in its innate nature that the break-up or salvage of eurozone is not only an economic decision but also a critical political decision followed by complicated ramifications that "If Berlin pays the bills and tells the rest of Europe how to behave, it risks fostering destructive nationalist resentment against Germany and The Economist provides a somewhat modified approach to saving the euro in that "a limited version of federalisation could be less miserable solution than break-up of the euro".
In order for overindebted countries to stabilise the dwindling euro and economy, the overindebted countries require "access to money and for banks to have a "safe" euro-wide class of assets that is not tied to the fortunes of one country" which could be obtained by "narrower Eurobond that mutualises a limited amount of debt for a limited amount of time".
Instead of the break-up and issuing new national governments bonds by individual euro-zone governments, "everybody, from Germany debt: Each country would pledge a specified tax such as a VAT surcharge to provide the cash. He argues that to save the Euro long-term structural changes are essential in addition to the immediate steps needed to arrest the crisis.
The changes he recommends include even greater economic integration of the European Union. Following the formation of the Treasury, the European Council could then authorise the ECB to "step into the breach", with risks to the ECB's solvency being indemnified.
In particular, he cautions, Germans will be wary of any such move, not least because many continue to believe that they have a choice between saving the Euro and abandoning it.
Soros writes that a collapse of the European Union would precipitate an uncontrollable financial meltdown and thus "the only way" to avert "another Great Depression" is the formation of a European Treasury. In , members of the European Union signed an agreement known as the Maastricht Treaty , under which they pledged to limit their deficit spending and debt levels. Some EU member states, including Greece and Italy, were able to circumvent these rules and mask their deficit and debt levels through the use of complex currency and credit derivatives structures.
This added a new dimension in the world financial turmoil, as the issues of " creative accounting " and manipulation of statistics by several nations came into focus, potentially undermining investor confidence. The focus has naturally remained on Greece due to its debt crisis.
There have been reports about manipulated statistics by EU and other nations aiming, as was the case for Greece, to mask the sizes of public debts and deficits. These have included analyses of examples in several countries      the United Kingdom,      Spain,  the United States,    and even Germany.
After extensive negotiations to implement a collateral structure open to all eurozone countries, on 4 October , a modified escrow collateral agreement was reached. The expectation is that only Finland will utilise it, due, in part, to a requirement to contribute initial capital to European Stability Mechanism in one instalment instead of five instalments over time.
Finland, as one of the strongest AAA countries, can raise the required capital with relative ease. At the beginning of October, Slovakia and Netherlands were the last countries to vote on the EFSF expansion , which was the immediate issue behind the collateral discussion, with a mid-October vote.
Finland's recommendation to the crisis countries is to issue asset-backed securities to cover the immediate need, a tactic successfully used in Finland's early s recession ,  in addition to spending cuts and bad banking. The handling of the crisis has led to the premature end of several European national governments and influenced the outcome of many elections:.
This section is very long. You can click here to skip it. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Causes of the European debt crisis. Public debt in , Source: European Commission  Legend: Post Irish economic downturn. Policy reactions to the eurozone crisis. European Financial Stability Facility. European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism. Economic reforms and recovery proposals regarding the Eurozone crisis.
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The Commission will present Proposals on the basis of Article 6 for a single supervisory mechanism shortly. We ask the Council to consider these Proposals as a matter of urgency by the end of When an effective single supervisory mechanism is established, involving the ECB, for banks in the euro area the ESM could, following a regular decision, have the possibility to recapitalise banks directly.
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Bank for International Settlements. Retrieved 21 July Dynamic risk assessment is the final stage of an integrated safety management system which can provide appropriate response during changing circumstances.
It relies on experience, training and continuing education, including effective debriefing to analyse not only what went wrong, but also what went right, and why, and to share this with other members of the team and the personnel responsible for the planning level risk assessment. Application of risk assessment procedures is common in a wide range of fields, and these may have specific legal obligations, codes of practice and standardised procedures.
Some of these are listed here. The National Library of Medicine provides risk assessment and regulation information tools for a varied audience. The United States Environmental Protection Agency provides basic information about environmental health risk assessments for the public for a wide variety of possible environmental exposures.
The Environmental Protection Agency began actively using risk assessment methods to protect drinking water in the United States after passage of the Safe Drinking Water Act of Considering the increase in junk food and its toxicity, FDA required in that cancer-causing compounds must not be present in meat at concentrations that would cause a cancer risk greater than 1 in a million over a lifetime.
The US Environmental Protection Agency provides extensive information about ecological and environmental risk assessments for the public via its risk assessment portal.
When risks apply mainly to small sub-populations, there is uncertainty at which point intervention is necessary. For example, there may be a risk that is very low for everyone, other than 0. It is necessary to determine whether this 0. If the risk is higher for a particular sub-population because of abnormal exposure rather than susceptibility, strategies to further reduce the exposure of that subgroup are considered. If an identifiable sub-population is more susceptible due to inherent genetic or other factors, public policy choices must be made.
The idea of not increasing lifetime risk by more than one in a million has become commonplace in public health discourse and policy. It provides a numerical basis for establishing a negligible increase in risk.
Environmental decision making allows some discretion for deeming individual risks potentially "acceptable" if less than one in ten thousand chance of increased lifetime risk. Low risk criteria such as these provide some protection for a case where individuals may be exposed to multiple chemicals e. In practice, a true zero-risk is possible only with the suppression of the risk-causing activity.
Stringent requirements of 1 in a million may not be technologically feasible or may be so prohibitively expensive as to render the risk-causing activity unsustainable, resulting in the optimal degree of intervention being a balance between risks vs.
For example, emissions from hospital incinerators result in a certain number of deaths per year. However, this risk must be balanced against the alternatives. There are public health risks, as well as economic costs, associated with all options. The risk associated with no incineration is potential spread of infectious diseases, or even no hospitals. Further investigation identifies options such as separating noninfectious from infectious wastes, or air pollution controls on a medical incinerator.
Intelligent thought about a reasonably full set of options is essential. Thus, it is not unusual for there to be an iterative process between analysis, consideration of options, and follow up analysis. For audits performed by an outside audit firm, risk assessment is a crucial stage before accepting an audit engagement. According to ISA Understanding the Entity and its Environment and Assessing the Risks of Material Misstatement , "the auditor should perform risk assessment procedures to obtain an understanding of the entity and its environment, including its internal control".
Audit risk is defined as the risk that the auditor will issue a clean unmodified opinion regarding the financial statements, when in fact the financial statements are materially misstated, and therefore do not qualify for a clean unmodified opinion. As a formula, audit risk is the product of two other risks: Risk of Material Misstatement and Detection risk.
This formula can be further broken down as follows: In the context of public health , risk assessment is the process of characterizing the nature and likelihood of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain human activities. Health risk assessment can be mostly qualitative or can include statistical estimates of probabilities for specific populations.
In most countries the use of specific chemicals or the operations of specific facilities e. In project management , risk assessment is an integral part of the risk management plan, studying the probability, the impact, and the effect of every known risk on the project, as well as the corrective action to take should an incident implied by a risk occur.
Understanding the regime of regulations that risk management must abide by is integral to formulating safe and compliant risk assessment practices. Information technology risk assessment can be performed by a qualitative or quantitative approach, following different methodologies. One important difference [ clarification needed ] in risk assessments in information security is modifying the threat model to account for the fact that any adversarial system connected to the Internet has access to threaten any other connected system.
Another notable difference is the strategic nature of IT risk assessments. Unlike tactical vulnerability assessments and penetration testing which aim to identify and close specific gaps in security, IT risk assessments are functional at the executive level to examine the broader picture of IT risk management.
They include bridges, tunnels, highways, railways, airports, seaports, power plants, dams, wastewater projects, coastal flood protection, oil and natural gas extraction projects, public buildings, information technology systems, aerospace projects, and defence systems.
Megaprojects have been shown to be particularly risky in terms of finance, safety, and social and environmental impacts.
Studies have shown that early parts of the system development cycle such as requirements and design specifications are especially prone to error. This effect is particularly notorious in projects involving multiple stakeholders with different points of view.
Evolutionary software processes offer an iterative approach to requirement engineering to alleviate the problems of uncertainty, ambiguity and inconsistency inherent in software developments. In July , shipping companies agreed to use standardized procedures in order to assess risk in key shipboard operation.
These procedures were implemented as part of the amended ISM Code. Formal risk assessment is a required component of most professional dive planning , but the format and methodology may vary. Consequences of an incident due to an identified hazard are generally chosen from a small number of standardised categories, and probability is estimated based on statistical data on the rare occasions when it is available, and on a best guess estimate based on personal experience and company policy in most cases.
A simple matrix is often used to transform these inputs into a level of risk, generally expressed as unacceptable, marginal or acceptable. If unacceptable, measures must be taken to reduce the risk to an acceptable level, and the final outcome of the risk assessment must be accepted by the affected parties before a dive commences.
Higher levels of risk may be acceptable in special circumstances, such as military or search and rescue operations when there is a chance of recovering a survivor. Diving supervisors are trained in the procedures of hazard identification and risk assessment , and it is part of their planning and operational responsibility.
Both health and safety hazards must be considered. Several stages may be identified. There is risk assessment done as part of the diving project planning, on site risk assessment which takes into account the specific conditions of the day, and dynamic risk assessment which is ongoing during the operation by the members of the dive team, particularly the supervisor and the working diver. In recreational scuba diving , the extent of risk assessment expected of the diver is relatively basic, and is included in the pre-dive checks.
Several mnemonics have been developed by diver certification agencies to remind the diver to pay some attention to risk, but the training is rudimentary. Diving service providers are expected to provide a higher level of care for their customers, and diving instructors and divemasters are expected to assess risk on behalf of their customers and warn them of site-specific hazards and the competence considered appropriate for the planned dive.
Technical divers are expected to make a more thorough assessment of risk, but as they will be making an informed choice for a recreational activity, the level of acceptable risk may be considerably higher than that permitted for occupational divers under the direction of an employer. In outdoor activities including commercial outdoor education, wilderness expeditioning and outdoor recreation , risk assessment refers to analysis of the probability and magnitude of unfavorable outcomes such as injury, illness, or property damage due to environmental and related causes, compared to the human development or other benefits of outdoor activity.
This is of particular importance as school programs and others weigh the benefits of youth and adult participation in various outdoor learning activities against the inherent and other hazards present in those activities. Outdoor education, wilderness adventure, and other outdoor-related organizations should, and are in some jurisdictions required, to conduct risk assessments prior to offering programs for commercial purposes   . Such organizations are given guidance on how to provide their risk assessments  and external consultancy services provide these assessments as well   .
Environmental Risk Assessment ERA aims at assessing the effects of stressors, often chemicals, on the local environment. A risk is an integrated assessment of likelihood and severity of an undesired event.
In ERA, the undesired event often depends on the chemical of interest and on the risk assessment scenario. Although this type of ratio is useful and often used in regulation purposes, it is only an indication of an exceeded apparent threshold.
Biodiversity Risk Assessments evaluate risks to biological diversity , specially the risk of species extinction or the risk of ecosystem collapse. The units of assessments are the biological species, subspecies or populations or ecological entities habitats , ecosystems , etc , and the risk are often related to human actions and interventions threats and pressures. Regional and national protocols have been proposed by multiple academic or governmental institutions and working groups,  but global standards such as the Red List of Threatened Species and the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems have been widely adopted, and are recognized or proposed as official indicators of progress toward international policy targets and goals, such as the Aichi targets and the Sustainable Development Goals.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Estimation of risk associated with exposure to a given set of hazards. Quantitative risk assessment software. List of diving hazards and precautions. Theory, Methods, and Applications. Their Significance and the Role of the Safety Professional". The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Transportation by Road and Rail.
Retrieved 19 July Shrader-Frechette and Westra